Category Archives: Economic Development

Why Transparency International’s 2020 corruption ranking of Pakistan is structurally flawed?


Syed Sharfuddin

On 25 January, 2021 Transparency International (TI), the Berlin based global watchdog on corruption issued its Corruption Perception Index (CPI) for 2020 in which Pakistan ranked 124 out of 180. This came as news to Pakistanis who had come to believe that the Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaaf (PTI) government of Prime Minister Imran Khan was the ‘cleanest’ of all the governments Pakistan has seen since the restoration of civilian democracy in Pakistan in 2008.  In that year, when General Musharraf left power and Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) formed a representative government following a free and fair election, TI’s CPI ranking for Pakistan was 134 out of 180. In 2013 when PPP lost the general election and Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) came to power, Pakistan’s CPI rank was 127 out of 177. In 2018, when PTI won the general election and formed government, Pakistan’s CPI rank was 117 out of 180. In 2019 it slipped 3 points to 120 out of 180. In 2020 it came down another 4 points to 120 out of 180. This contrasts sharply with Pakistan’s CPI rank during 2015-2018 in the PML (N) government when it fluctuated between 116 and 119. Pakistan’s 2020 rank stands close to the 2014 CPI index of 126 out of 180. This is despite the fact that the PTI leadership has zero tolerance for corruption and TI has not taken it into account in scoring Pakistan’s ranking in its global index.

TI uses thirteen different databases from twelve international and private institutions, which provide perceptions of business people and country experts about the level of corruption in the public sector of a country under scrutiny. Their databases focus on a specific theme on which the concerned institution collects data and shares with TI. The institution also asks specific questions in its area of specialization to assess whether corruption exists in the political system and public sector. For assessing Pakistan’s ranking in 2020, TI relied on the data provided by the following nine institutions.

Bertlsmann Stiftung Transformation Index (BFTI). The questions were: 1) to what extend public office holders who abuse their positions are prosecuted or penalized? 2) to what extent government successfully contains corruption?

Economic Intelligence Unit (EIU). The questions were: 1) are there clear procedures and accountability governing the allocation and use of public funds? 2) do ministers/public officials misappropriate public funds for private or party political purposes? 3) are there special funds for which there is no accountability? 4) are there general abuses of public resources? 5) is there a professional civil service or are large numbers of officials directly appointed by the government?  6) is there an independent body auditing the management of public finances? 7) is there an independent judiciary with the power to try ministers/public officials for abuses? And, 8) is there a tradition of a payment of bribes to secure contracts and gain favours?

Global Insight Business Conditions (GI). Their questions were: 1) do individuals/companies face bribery or other corrupt practices in carrying out business, or securing major contracts or being allowed to import/export a small product or obtaining everyday paperwork? and, 2) if so, is there a threat to the ability of individuals / companies to operate in a country, and do they run the risk of facing legal or regulatory penalties and reputational damage?

IMBD Yearbook 2020. The question asked was: do bribery and corruption exist?

The PRS Group International Country Risk Guide 2020. The questions were: 1) does financial corruption exist in the form of demands for special payments and bribes connected with import and export licenses, exchange controls, tax assessments, police protection or loans; and, 2) is there actual or potential corruption in the form of excessive patronage, nepotism, job reservations, exchange of favours, secret party funding and suspiciously close ties between politics and business?

World Bank Country Policy and Institutional Assessment 2019. The questions were: 1) is there transparency for accountability and corruption of the executive to oversight institutions and of public employees for their performance? 2) does civil society have access to information on public affairs? and, 3) is there State capture by narrow vested interests?

World Economic Forum (WEF) Executive Opinion Survey 2019. Questions put to business executives were:  1) how common is it for firms to make undocumented extra payments or bribes connected with the following:a) imports and exportsb) public utilitiesc) annual tax paymentsd) awarding of public contracts and licenses, and,e) obtaining favourable judicial decisions? and, 2)how common is diversion of public funds to companies, individuals or groups due to corruption?

World Justice Project (WJP) Rule of Law Index. The question asked was: to what extent government officials, employed in public health system, regulatory agencies, the police, military and judiciary use public office for private gain. Pakistan scored low in this data collected from experts.

Varieties of Democracy Project. The question asked was: how pervasive is political corruption? Pakistan scored low in this data collected from experts.

The other four institutions that supplied data to TI did not cover Pakistan. These were: 1) Freedom House which, in this context, deals with counties in democratic transition; 2) African Development Bank, which deals with counties in Africa; 3) Bertismann Stiftung which deals with countries in the EU, and 4) Political and Economic Risk Consultancy which deals with specific countries in the Asia Pacific region and the US.

There are gaps in the methodology used by TI to rank countries on corruption. Firstly, not all the thirteen data providing institutions assess all 180 countries, which raises a question about the quality of information used to make an assessment for each country. Secondly, with the exception of a few, most of the institutions collecting data are private risk assessment firms, which sell country reports to governments and foreign investors on commercial terms. Interestingly, although TI website provides information about the url sources of its data, the private institutions providing the data to TI do not make their reports open to public without registration. This raises the next question about transparency of data collection and country ranking.

TI Pakistan website does not give information about who was approached in the business and expert sector to provide specific answers to the data collecting institutions. In a country like Pakistan where opinions are so openly divided between pro government and pro-opposition lobbies, it is hard to rank perceptions.

Thirdly, TI methodology does not explain how weightage is assigned to different data sources. For instance, Pakistan scored low in the questions asked by two institutions: the World Justice Project and Varieties of Democracy Project but its scoring in the answers to questions by other seven institutions did not prevent its slippage by four points in 2020.

The World Justice Project is a US based database covering the views of households, legal practitioners and experts. WJP assesses countries in eight specific areas, namely, constraints for government powers, absence of corruption, open government, fundamental rights, order and security, regulatory enforcement, civil justice and criminal justice. TI’s selection of this institution to assess the level of corruption in a country is inaccurate because WJP does not specialise in corruption. Its focus is on rule of law and the factors that impede respect and enforcement of rule of law. Unlike TI’s coverage of 180 countries, WJP covers only 128 countries.

The Varieties of Democracy Institute is an academic Sweden-based democracy-rating project, which studies the state of democracy in a country in five specific areas. These are: electoral democracy and its liberal component; government manipulation of media, civil society, rule of law and elections; polarization of society and use of hate speech by political leadership; spread of disinformation in the cyber age; and political, executive and public sector corruption. The institute relies on the work of about a dozen researchers, a similar number of managers and 2000 country experts. Its core work is democracy and not corruption. TI’s use of this institute to rank counties in the CPI index is therefore not convincing.

Even if it is conceded that Pakistan fails almost all the criteria of V-Dem Institute on democracy benchmarks and has a large democracy deficit in the rule of law index of WJP, it cannot be attributed to the level of corruption in the country in 2020 compared to the corruption levels in the previous years.

To provide evidence of improvement in anti-corruption in a country, one needs to look at the commitment of the government for eliminating corruption at political, executive and public sector levels. One also needs to see if the regulatory bodies in a country are willing and able to translate the political commitment into action. In 2020, Pakistan met the requirement of having such a political commitment at the highest level. Its anti corruption bodies also delivered on this commitment. The country’s main anti corruption agency, the National Accountability Bureau made tremendous efforts in 2019 to 2020 to recover Rs. 390 billion of embezzled public money. The Public Accounts Committee also made recoveries worth Rs 300 billion. In 2020 the public fundraising drive launched as the Prime Minister’s COVID Relief Fund did not fall prey to public corruption in the collection of donations or distribution of funds to the poor.

This is not to say Pakistan has scored better in tackling corruption and must be placed somewhere close to 90 in the CPI ranking. As stated earlier, corruption cannot be eliminated in a short period of one or two years. There are democracy and corruption related issues that will take a while to remove such as the constitutional requirement of organizing a general election under a neutral caretaker government, because the incumbent government whose electoral term comes to an end after five years cannot be trusted to hold a free and fair election. Or take for example Prime Minister Imran Khan’s suggestion to pass a constitutional amendment to conduct the Senate election by a show of hands instead of a secret ballot, because the electoral college, comprising elected representatives in the Provincial Assemblies cannot be trusted to be honest due to the past record of large scale horse-trading in Senate elections involving political bribes of millions of Rupees.

There is also moral and intellectual corruption in public office, which does not count in TI’s PCI criteria. Political leaders have repeatedly made promises they have never fulfilled. They publicly claim to resign if they are proven wrong, but when events or evidence prove them so, they look the other way. Accepting an error of judgment or tendering resignation from public office for failure to perform or act responsibly is not part of the political culture of Pakistan. Many investigation reports are never made public.  The government reacts to public outrage against corruption not by strengthening existing institutions but by ordering judicial enquiries (such as the most recent Commission on Broadsheet) or establishing additional committees (such as the joint investigation committees).  In staying in a reactive mode all the time, the important lesson learning is lost in the details. Political leaders file counter cases in courts when challenged with allegations of corruption against them. These issues do not feature in the criteria of IT. Its annual data is based on assessments provided by a limited pool of business executives and experts, not exceeding a few hundred in each country.

There is a difference between the actual state of corruption on the ground and the perception of corruption reducing or getting worse. What reinforce such perceptions are statements of political leadership from both the government and the opposition and the views of businessmen, academics, civil society and media.  The PTI government has harmed its anti-corruption agenda by keeping the rhetoric of corruption high at every national and international forum. In his bilateral meetings with leaders of other states, including meetings at the UN and WEF, the Prime Minister has talked about his country’s past leaders being corrupt and dishonest. In most of his domestic speeches he has also attacked them repeatedly for stealing public money and keeping secret bank deposits and real estate assets overseas. This narrative has sent a wrong message to the world that the present Prime Minister may be an honest and upright gentleman, but his country is the land of the corrupt and crooks. With this message, when representatives of international institutions meet Pakistanis, they don’t hear a contradiction. When they speak to government functionaries or PTI supporters, they hear stories about the corruption of opposition leaders. When they speak to the opposition parties and their supporters, they hear stories of scandals and corruption in public office by government ministers and advisers, with the result that the image they came with in the country about corruption is amplified and reinforced.

A damaging impact of this unhealthy narrative is that it feeds the view that the anti corruption agenda of the government is nothing more than a political stunt to keep the opposition on the defensive. It is also a matter of who one talks to in the business community and civil society. The polarisation of he society is so stark that an opinion on reduction in corruption is cancelled by a counter-opinion against it.

It is about time that the Prime Ministers and his ministers and advisers change their narrative and stop witch hunting the opposition on corruption. They should instead speak about other important issues, which have to do with strengthening democracy and achieving real growth and development. Improvements in social safety networks, human rights, criminal justice system, the rule of law, independence of judiciary and freedom of media are ultimately going to be the winners for Pakistan in its fight against corruption without beating the drum loud. There is also no need to take TI’s 2020 CPI ranking seriously because it does not deserve the importance it should be given in all fairness because of the shortcomings in its data collection methodology and applying it realistically in framing the annual global index.

The author is a former Special Adviser, Political Affairs in the Commonwealth Secretariat, London, UK. He can be reached at sharaf.sharfuddin@gmail.com

International Migration: Challenges and Opportunities

SharafThe growing Diaspora of expatriate populations across the world and their multiple but mutually reinforcing identities and allegiances are a feature of globalisation. This is reinforced by the fact that governments in developing countries are reaching out to their respective overseas communities, especially in the rich countries, for investments and transfer of knowledge for human resource development programmes.

It is also helped by increasing multiculturalism at national and global levels. If the opportunities offered by migration are exploited positively, it can play a vital role in reducing poverty and economic vulnerability and in improving sustainable human development.

There is a need to improve the understanding and implementation of existing legal instruments on migration, supplemented by voluntary and cooperative efforts to provide capacity building, foster dialogue between host states and the countries of origin, and make migration mutually beneficial to countries and migrants.

Better indicators on measuring the impact of migration and development can provide answers to such questions as how this can contribute to reducing poverty. Managing migration means having the correct data for mitigating skills shortages in countries of origin as well as destination.

The orderly and selective management of labour markets can address the gaps between supply and demand and ultimately, dry up the existing ground for traffickers and smugglers who abuse the openings in the system for personal gain.

The relationship between migration and development is not new, certainly not for the developing countries. The history of the South Asian subcontinent as well as other parts of the world is intertwined with the movement of people; people who left their homes for education, trade, business opportunities and even to explore the world and to discover new territories. Over the years, these movements resulted in building a rich political, social and cultural heritage with a common purpose – to pursue happiness, peace and a safe future for the coming generations.

What is new in the context of migration today is the rapid pace, excess capacity and pressing impetus for global mobility. People move for a range of reasons – from the very oppressing, namely conflict, war, persecution, famine and disease to the most positive, imparting technical know-how and skills to others in response to specific requests or for the betterment of their future. Migration is both the result of a cause (positive or negative), as well as an act of voluntary choice due to social and economic circumstances.

Migration also has implications for host populations who can either benefit by allowing migrants to take up job opportunities in the services sector which is not fully exploited. Alternately, the local populations may feel threatened by seeing so many of local opportunities taken away by outsiders who are either better skilled or are willing to accept lower wages.

What is also new today is the greater possibility for gathering of information which allows systematic evaluation of the impact of migration on labour markets, remittance flows and migration networks. This can help countries to formulate effective policies to manage migration flows in a way that they make a greater contribution to global development.

A specific example of the value of migration is its ability to deal with shortages in skills in countries which are developed and abundant in natural resources. Although migrants fill this gap quickly in the host countries, they cause a shortage of skills in the countries of origin which have often invested heavily in producing technical expertise for national development, especially in the sectors of health, education and information technology. The remittances sent home by their nationals cannot replace the brain-drain caused by flight of these skilled workers to greener pastures.

Effective development is promoted not just by aid and trade in goods and services but also by expanding the exchange of experience and skills across countries and regions. Migration reflects the interdependence of the countries of the world as one of the most effective ways of promoting respect and understanding amongst communities and the elimination of causes of friction.

Selective removal of visa barriers to enable young professionals, scientists, business persons, journalists and artists to travel freely between nations is an important element of this strategy.

South Asian countries need to further expand on the existing visa waiver initiatives being negotiated under the aegis of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation.

Some of the benefits of international migration are exposure to globalisation through study visas and short term work permits for skills’ enhancement; internationalisation of production involving movement of labour and management; promotion of fundamental political economic and social values which are common to humanity; increase in foreign direct investments and capital flows necessary for development; and foreign exchange earnings for developing countries and Least Developed Countries (LDCs) in the form of workers’ remittances sent from abroad.

The eradication of human trafficking requires a comprehensive approach which focuses on the prevention and protection of victims and the prosecution of culprits. In 2005 the Commonwealth countries agreed to honour their obligations arising under international law and to support the full implementation of the 2000 Protocol to Prevent, Suppress and Punish Trafficking in Persons, Especially Women and Children, supplementing the UN Convention against Transnational Organised Crime. They also affirmed the principle of solidarity and burden-sharing with regard to assistance afforded to refugees and to their host communities.

An area often talked about but least implemented is the human rights of migrants. Countries have an obligation under the UN instruments and other subsequent international protocols to take measures to ensure respect for and protection of the human rights of migrants, migrant workers and members of their families. Sometimes appropriate laws exist in the statute books of receiving countries but these are rarely enforced.

There have been many case studies of exploitation of South Asian, South East Asian and Middle Eastern immigrant workers in the oil rich Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, even though their legal systems provide protection to immigrant workers against abuse of human rights.Many developing countries are reluctant to engage in a national debate on human rights in the context of international security as it puts an additional strain on their law enforcement agencies. The issue of missing persons in Pakistan is an example of the challenge human rights poses in dealing with criminals and terrorists.

The developed world, particularly the G-8 countries, have a moral obligation to translate into action the tall pledges made at various international conferences for improving the standard of life of people through free and fair trade and debt forgiveness initiatives so that people do not leave their countries of origin in search of better livelihoods elsewhere, thereby overloading the migration system in the first place.

Development assistance also needs to focus more on capacity building programmes for improving education and health sectors and strengthening other institutions of the state in order to transform societies through economic, social and human development. Development of innovative approaches for deepening inter-state cooperation can help promote the managed transfer of migrants from countries with adequate labour surplus such as those in South Asia to those facing projected labour shortages such as Europe and North America.

The debate also needs to focus on how the countries of origin that benefit from human resource development and workers’ remittances can prepare themselves to meet the shortages that are temporarily created due to the flight of human capital and absorb their skilled workers back in the countries of origin after they have returned home at the expiry of their work visas.

An important area which should form part of the policy framework on immigration and development is strategy for information management. Migration can be managed properly if there is accurate information about labour markets. Both labour and immigration authorities need to be equipped with the machinery and technical skills to be able to provide accurate figures, when required for planning and evaluation.

There is also need for each country to maintain a database of its nationals with due legal protection for its citizens for sharing of data for security reasons, and upgrade the electronic filing systems of the customs and immigration departments to be able to use this data efficiently.

These systems should be strong enough to cope with the increase of passenger traffic at all entry and exit points such as airports and seaports for business and holiday travel. Malaysia offers an example of a highly integrated information system on citizens in the form of the Malaysian national identity card.

Pakistan has also moved closer to keeping a national database of its citizens for passport purposes but is debatable whether consolidating other data such as information on tax, health records, credit details, etc., is safe and practical. It also needs to be supported by comprehensive data protection legislation and its implementation at all levels to preserve the privacy of citizens.

It is also in the interest of the US and the European Union to double their current assistance to developing countries such as Pakistan to build capacity for designing a complete and efficient immigration database of their nationals as well as maintaining the record of other incoming and outgoing persons to and from their territories for tourism, study, temporary work or other short-term stays.

This article was published by the author in the daily Dawn on 17 April 2007 www.dawn.com

Muslim States and Democracy

SharafA large number of countries in the world like being called democracies on the basis of holding periodic elections in the presence of international observers and on the laws that they enact through their functional cabinets or parliaments. Many also claim to be governed by the rule of law, stating that they are guided by their constitutions in keeping their social contract and taking important public decisions.
Many resources are committed by the US in developing democracy promotion strategies. However, the experience of EU accession agreements with the new applicants setting up clear targets for membership suggests that conditionality may be more effective in promoting democracy than mere incentives. There are also periodic reports which “name and shame” countries on the basis of democratic yardsticks such as political rights and civil liberties, human rights violations, corruption and on meeting international goals. What is, however, needed now is investment in resources and tools for building the architecture of democracy in countries which are democracies only in name. This is a gigantic task. The design of democracy requires that in order to be effective, several of its components should be working efficiently and in accordance with international treaties, non-binding declarations and political commitments of national leaders.
These components consist of a modern constitution; separation of powers with proper checks and balances; an independent judiciary; electoral and political processes that deliver representative and responsible government; instruments of accountability, public scrutiny and transparency; the contribution made by women in politics and conflict-resolution; the comfort level of minorities and other marginal groups in the political system; protection of human rights and freedom of assembly, belief and expression; and devolution of powers.
The weakening of any of these important components of democracy can endanger the very foundations of democracy and it would take years to restore trust and millions of dollars to rebuild institutions. Also, when elected governments become complacent and self-serving, they become corrupt and devoid of imagination to reform.
Experience suggests that the design and capacity for democratic institutions cannot be imported. The local population must be consulted fully in any reforms agenda and must own the changes before constitutions can be written or improved in a country. Afghanistan is a permanent example of why things have never gone right with this country. For most part of their history, the Afghan people remained strangers to the policies of the government in Kabul which were framed with outside consultation without involving the people in the discussions on the nature and composition of their governance.
It is, therefore, unfair to assume that Hamas, having won the elections in Palestine would behave like its counterpart right wing political party in Israel or that a monarchy like Swaziland which has welcomed democracy and adopted its first indigenous constitution limiting the powers of the king, could now be compared to a constitutional monarchy in Europe which has gone through a long democratic transition from monarchy to liberal democracy for almost a century.
Should these suspect regimes be given the benefit of doubt and room for engagement, or should they be thrown out and replaced by their western educated counterparts who have been in exile abroad, and who may be very articulate and good-intentioned, but who may not have popular support in their home countries to pursue long-term reforms?
This brings us to the point of where Muslim countries stand in regard to the western democratic model. While the former group of countries may still exhibit signs of authoritarianism, countries in the latter category are in the final stages of liberal democracy where the focus is entirely on the freedom of the individual.
A further stage in the evolution of democracy is secular democracy where the emphasis is on the separation of state from religion in all aspects of social and political issues, such as the constitution, administration, legislation, policymaking and culture.
Only two countries would find trouble with this definition; namely Pakistan and Israel because both were founded in the name of religion. Over the last 60 odd years there have been robust debates in both these countries on separating religion from politics.
The traditionalists in these countries take the view that this is tantamount to challenging their very reason for existence. Others, who are also in a majority, take a more general view and regard their independence as a result of historical forces which is no longer relevant in a modern world. The emerging social contract in both these countries today favours separation of state from religion.
Secular democracies have been very popular in pluralistic and multi-ethnic societies such as India and South Africa where unity is achieved by treating all citizens equally and keeping religion out of public discourse. In secular societies, the tyranny of the majority is balanced by the rights of the minorities protected by law and efficient justice. In this type of democracy, justice plays a central role. It guarantees a stable and just society despite divisions created by religious, philosophic and moral doctrines.
Despite its open view, secular democracy is not liberal democracy which is the next step in democracy’s higher evolution. In liberal democracies, top priority is given to individual liberty over all other human endeavours such as equality, social justice, democracy, stability and order.
Except for western democracies, many emerging democracies are not aware of what liberalism means to their societies. They have not yet faced issues such as legal protection for same-sex marriages, right to euthanasia, etc. In fact, this horizon is further expanding with political scientists talking about the state-plus vision of global democracy.
The question that is often asked is how the promotion and building of democracy can be successful in the Muslim world which has been slow to implement reforms. Many traditional Muslim countries which are now experimenting with democracy find it hard to feed the western theories of democracy to their traditional populations beyond deliberative democracy. This is because secular democracy still raises doubts in the minds of many Muslims as to its implications for their ideology and family traditions.
Irrespective of the clear definition of secularism, which is not to be confused with communism, these countries suspect that it is a way of bringing a godless culture into their lives through the backdoor.
It is also inconceivable that if some Muslim countries indeed embrace secularism as their political philosophy, such as Turkey, they would find it easy to move to liberal democracy in the next stage of their democratic evolution. What is, therefore, required is a new marker on the horizontal line of democracy’s evolution for Muslim states and its recognition by the international community as an important stage in their transition. Pakistan has called this intermediate stage “enlightened moderation”. Some others call it “decent democracy’.
Malaysia, for instance, would argue that in the Muslim world, the aim should be to replace illiberal democracies or authoritarian regimes not with secular or liberal democracies but with decent democracies where human rights, democratic and institutional reforms and constitutions correspond to the core values of the local population and sit well with the social makeup of their respective communities.
The model of decent democracy also sets aside endless debates about whether Islam is compatible with democracy or is democracy compatible with Islam. Instead of highlighting the definition of sovereignty in Islam, the linkage between political Islam and religious Islam or the limits placed on man as the creation of God, decent democracy lays emphasis on those positive aspects where there is no difference of opinion between the West and Islam.
These common values highlight developing democratic institutions and processes; good and honest governance; effective social and economic development; respect for all faiths, cultures and human rights; legal, administrative, political and structural reforms; development of free media and independent civil society; participation of women in politics, both in numbers and the quality of their input; and an active engagement with the external actors in the western world who are perceived not as enemies but as partners.
In addition to that, some way should be found to gainfully utilise the experience of very senior and experienced leaders in the Muslim world whose continuation as kings or heads of state or government may no longer be fashionable or popular in their respective countries, but who remain a valuable source of political advice, guidance and inspiration for the younger leadership.
Regrettably, apart from a few selective efforts, no global attempt has been made to tap this important resource and encourage more such leaders who do not see an active political future for themselves in their countries to retire early and play a regional and global role as mediators, special envoys and guardian angels of peace and democracy worldwide.
Perhaps the United Nations can take the first step in setting up a global institution which keeps former presidents and prime ministers occupied in lecture tours and resource-building efforts to make it worthwhile for them to retire and give democracy a chance.

PS: This article was published by the author in the daily Dawn on 25 May 2007 http://www.dawn.com

The Industrial Revolution Goes On

 

SharafIndustrial revolution is synonymous with economic growth. It was not a single event fixed in history. Industrial revolution continued to shape the attitude of societies toward life and transformed the way in which small communities survived through subsistence living on pastoral lands. Over two centuries since it began, industrial revolution embraced many technological innovations and scientific discoveries turning these into economic opportunities and creation of wealth as a measure of happiness.

Industrial Revolution has passed through three distinct phases – each phase having its own unique experience in different parts of the world. Of course, Europe and North America were the first to benefit from it. Other regions and countries followed later as Empires broke up and resulted in the rise of the nation state. It is, however, questionable whether all countries followed the phases in their sequence or skipped a few stages in their graduation process to stay in the fast lane of global trade and mass consumption. What can be said with certainty is that Globalization, with its accompanying consequences of environmental degradation and erosion of classical ethical standards, has forced countries to act together and work through industrialization for the benefit of their populations – now, as well as in the future.
Phase I
Industrial revolution began in Europe and North America in the 18th century with the invention of the rail road and the steam engine. The demand for labour meant mass movement of workers from rural areas to mining towns; the establishment of ‘factory’ to produce large scale goods; urban settlements; origin of capital enterprise and large scale cultivation to make ago-based production work for all. This phase lasted more or less two centuries. The wheel was the centre of human advancement. Although it had been invented centuries before by ancient man, the most extensive use of the wheel was made by the founders and drivers of industrial revolution in this phase.
Phase II
The next phase of industrial revolution came with the invention of electricity and the motor car in the 1900s. The 20th century resulted in many inventions encouraging people to take mechanical and chemical engineering as their most preferred professions. The costly experience of the two World Wars enabled further innovations in the military-industrial complex and resulted in the invention of the computer and later the internet, although at a limited scale. The focus of this phase was to use technology for products which required precision, standardization and artificial intelligence. Advances in electrical engineering led to office automation, robotics, trains and planes which did not require human pilots to drive them to pre-programmed destinations. Technology was, however, focused to achieve a single outcome; it could do only what it was programmed to do. Robots were invented but they appeared very dumb and stupid because they were slow and possessed the intelligence of a child.
Phase III
It can be argued that while the first phase of industrial revolution took two centuries or more to complete, the second stage took only half that time. With the advent of the Millennium, the industrial revolution entered the third phase. The hallmark of this phase was digital technology. Digitization changed the way banking and communications were done before. Plastic card, pins and chips obviated the need for large wallets and brick like hand phones. Now mobile cell phones and tablets are becoming so common that the old voluminous PC seems to be on the march to extinction. Technology is being employed to combine multiple outputs. Robots are getting smarter. Hospitals are changing the way patients were treated. Cars no longer rely on mechanical parts. The office secretary, accounts clerk, bus conductor, milkman, watch mender and cobbler are rare species. Travel agents, tailors and corner shops are next in line to go bust. Newspapers and TVs are reinventing themselves to stay in business. Micro-chip is getting smaller by the day. Pocket gadgets hold more information and artificial memory than one can carry in a tonne of bag full of paper. While the first phase of industrial revolution was labour intensive, this phase is labour aversive. Technological innovations are replacing humans. Even in the act of procreation, test tube designer babies can be produced through cloning or in-verto fertilization with the additional package of body parts that can be grown like tomatoes on the vine and replaced like the tyres of a race car every few laps on the track.
Phase IV
No one can be absolutely sure what the next phase will be in the evolution of industrial revolution. So far, it can be argued that the revolution has helped mankind immensely and has improved the quality of life many times over. Yesterday’s miners are today’s professional plumbers and call-centre operators. They may not always earn the top Dollar in wages, but their working conditions are far better than their predecessors in the ‘food chain’ of work. However, one question remains. Has the quotient of happiness for man increased or decreased? Are there less or more conflicts, disasters and food shortages in the world than there were before the invention of GM and discovery of methicillin resistant staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) super bug? Is humanity better off today as a whole or have we remained divided between the haves and the haves not. I believe the glass is half full. We just need to make sure it keeps on filling as we go along in the march to conquer the universe.
Syed Sharfuddin
London
7 May 2014